Control at the Capitol is at stake in the 2026 election and with a tied Minnesota House and one-vote margin in the Senate, a handful a swing districts will decide if the state has divided government or a trifecta once again. We begin my Almanac Race to Watch series in the north metro in an open seat, I will be giving districts with no incumbent extra attention and 36A in Circle Pines and Lino Lakes has truly independent swing voters. It’s a district we’ve featured before when Republican Rep. Elliot Engen became the youngest lawmaker to win a House seat, but his attempt at higher office and DWI arrest during session brought unwanted attention to the area. The two candidates vying to replace him couldn’t be more different, take a look at the story to see the contrast for yourself.
Overall, Democrats feel confident after recruiting candidates for all 201 legislative districts reportedly for the first time in state history. But Republicans think with mounting fraud in state government and an unpopular governor, they could pick up seats, especially in rural districts that have been moving away from the Democratic Farmer Labor party. House Republican Floor Leader Harry Niska responded to news that the Department of Justice announced criminal charges against 15 Minnesota defendants in connection with fraud schemes targeting more than $90 million in taxpayer funds across seven state-managed Medicaid programs:
Leader Niska added, “Let’s be clear: Minnesota’s fraud crisis exploded on the watch of Governor Walz and legislative Democrats. They were never serious about stopping fraud, and it was not until House Republicans ended Democrats’ trifecta in 2024 that we were able to make sure action was taken on this crisis in St. Paul. Because of House Republicans, Minnesota now has dozens of new tools and reforms in place to help stop fraud, hold fraudsters accountable, and begin changing the culture of fraud Democrats allowed to take root in state government.”
The House DFL is counting on a superior ground game and fundraising:
House DFL reports having raised $2,825,043 through July 20 of this year – $318,216 more than was raised at this point in 2024 – setting another fundraising record for the 2026 election cycle.
To date, the House DFL has raised over $5.4 million, exceeding what was raised at this point in 2024 by more than $862,000. The campaign also currently has $2,465,403 in the bank, $97,481 higher than what was on hand in 2024.
“With less than 100 days until Election Day, it’s clear Minnesotans trust the House DFL to look out for them and work to make their lives more affordable. Districts are about to get flooded with billionaire money and bogus mailers, and every dollar we receive from everyday Minnesotans who share our values will help us win this election,” said House DFL Leader Zack Stephenson. “Because we work hard, and because we love Minnesota, we’re going to win this election and deliver for the people of our state.”
