Spending records are being set heading towards the August 11th Primary Election in Minnesota. Democrats and Republicans both have unusually spirited races that had President Trump weigh in for My Pillow’s Mike Lindell against the endorsed candidate Kendall Qualls defying the Republican Party’s pick for governor and the biggest fundraiser House Speaker Lisa Demuth. Typically the GOP’s nod sticks in the state, this may be the year that puts that to the toughest test in decades.
Democrats’ U.S. Senate contest between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and U.S. Rep. Angie Craig is attracting the most money and attention. Former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya is eclipsing the Republican field in fundraising and polling but failed to get the endorsement against Adam Schwarze. The problem with primary polls is low turnout in these summer ballots do not mirror the larger turnout of voters typically tallied in the general election.
The last Republican to win the statewide race for governor in the Minnesota was Gov. Tim Pawlenty, his Communications Director Brian McClung in my interview on Twin Cities PBS Almanac reminds us that Pawlenty was leading primary polls in his attempt at a third-term but lost to the party’s endorsed candidate Jeff Johnson in 2018 so he’s fascinated by bigger name candidates breaking through, but somewhat skeptical of the latest KSTP poll that shows:
Lindell, Tafoya increase their leads; Craig, Ellison margins shrink, biggest demographic changes:
Lindell: +9 with women, +17 with 65+ age group
Demuth: +10 with 18-34 age group, +8 with 65+ age group
Qualls: -9 with women, -10 with parents
Tafoya: +11 with men, +10 with 50-64 age group
Schwarze: -7 with 35-49 age group, -7 with parents
White: -7 with women
Flanagan: +10 with men, +10 with 65+ age group
Craig: +12 with 35-49 age group, +8 with 65+ age group
Schutz: +6 with 65+ age group
Ellison: +6 with 35-49 age group, -5 with 50-64 age group
